Strait of Hormuz: Impending 'Maritime Blockade' Under Yuan Flag? In-depth Analysis of Tollgate Shaking International Trade Order

[Background]: The Bloody History of 'Black Gold,' the Geopolitical Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, a key maritime route through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passes. As the lifeline of crude oil, known as 'black gold,' it has historically been a site of constant power struggles among major powers. In the 20th century, the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, and in the 21st century, the sharp conflict between the United States and Iran, have been evident. The Strait of Hormuz has always symbolized the instability of international affairs. In particular, Iran regards the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic stronghold for its security interests and has frequently threatened to blockade the strait. Against this backdrop, recent events in the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns that they could have serious repercussions on the international trade order and security environment, beyond simple maritime passage issues.

[Current Situation]: Yuan Tolls, Protected Passage Emerge... Strait of Hormuz Transforms into a New 'Tollgate'

On March 28, 2026, local time, multiple foreign media outlets reported that a new order is forming in the Strait of Hormuz, where tolls are paid in Chinese Yuan and passage through the strait is granted with the 'protection' of specific countries. While Iran maintains its policy of denying passage to ships from the United States and Israeli allies, escalating tensions, China is expanding its influence by allowing Yuan payments for its ships and providing 'protected passage' with naval force if necessary. Specifically, ships of the Chinese state-owned shipping company COSCO are already paying tolls in Yuan, and the Chinese Navy is reportedly deploying frigates and patrol aircraft to ensure their safe passage. In addition, claims have been made that Russia is also providing similar 'protected passage' for its oil tankers. With the interests of various countries intertwined around the Strait of Hormuz toll market, estimated at 150 trillion won annually, the strait is increasingly likely to transform into a new 'tollgate.' In particular, with Iran maintaining its policy of denying passage to ships from the United States and Israeli allies, it has become virtually impossible for these countries' ships to use the Strait of Hormuz, which is analyzed to cause serious disruptions to international maritime trade.

[Multifaceted Analysis]: Impact on Market, Society, Politics, and Expert Opinions

The 'tollgate' of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have complex impacts on various aspects, including the market, society, and politics.

* Market: The expansion of Yuan settlement can be interpreted as a challenge to the dollar-centric international financial order and may contribute to strengthening the international status of the Yuan in the long term. In addition, 'protected passage' by specific countries raises maritime transport costs, which ultimately leads to higher commodity prices and can deepen global inflation. In particular, restrictions on the passage of ships from the United States and Israeli allies disrupt the energy supply and demand of these countries and can have a negative impact on related industries.

* Society: The escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz threatens the safety of maritime transport workers and increases the possibility of piracy. This amplifies the anxiety of maritime transport workers and can deepen the labor shortage in related industries. In addition, environmental pollution in the event of maritime accidents is a social problem that cannot be overlooked.

* Politics: The 'tollgate' of the Strait of Hormuz further deepens the conflict between the United States and China, Iran and Israel, and can amplify the geopolitical instability of the Middle East. In particular, the expansion of China's influence can be regarded as a challenge to the United States' hegemony in the Middle East, which can further intensify the strategic competition between the two countries. In addition, Iran's hard-line stance can lead to international sanctions and deepen Iran's isolation.

Expert Opinion: Andrew Tate, an international maritime security expert, warned, "The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is very serious. Yuan settlement and protected passage are a clear challenge to the international maritime order, which can ultimately lead to the division and conflict of maritime trade." In addition, Elizabeth King, an energy market analyst, analyzed, "Restrictions on the passage of ships from the United States and Israeli allies can cause a surge in energy prices and have a serious impact on the global economy."

[Future Prospects]: Realization of Maritime Blockade Scenario? International Community's Response and Future Prospects

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to worsen in the future. If Iran maintains its policy of denying passage to ships from the United States and Israeli allies, and China expands Yuan settlement and protected passage, the strait may be virtually in a 'maritime blockade' state. This can cause serious disruptions to international maritime trade and cause enormous damage to the global economy.

Points to Note: The international community must strengthen diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States must resume dialogue with Iran, and China must play a constructive role in maintaining maritime order. In addition, the European Union (EU) must assume the role of mediator to support confidence-building between the countries concerned. If diplomatic efforts fail, the international community must seek joint response measures through the United Nations Security Council. If the maritime blockade scenario becomes a reality, an international coalition naval force must be formed to secure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz and ensure freedom of navigation. In addition, in the long term, new maritime transport routes that can replace the Strait of Hormuz must be developed, and dependence on specific regions must be reduced through diversification of energy supply and demand. From the perspective of AI, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz can be an opportunity to promote the reorganization of the international trade order beyond simple geopolitical conflict. Efforts are needed to strengthen maritime security and increase trade efficiency by utilizing new technologies such as building a blockchain-based decentralized maritime transport system and introducing an AI-based maritime surveillance system.

AI Opinion: The Strait of Hormuz will become a forward base for Yuan hegemony competition. A major shift in the maritime trade order is predicted along with the fall of the dollar.