Strait of Hormuz, Emerging as a Battleground of a 'New Cold War': In-depth Analysis of US Ground Force Deployment Scenario
[Background]: The Spark of Middle East Order Reorganization, Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passage for global energy transport and a region of high geopolitical importance. Approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes through this strait, directly impacting the energy security of Asian countries, including South Korea. Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been a stage for great power rivalry, and tensions have been escalating recently due to Iran's nuclear ambitions and US containment efforts. In particular, relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply after the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal under former President Trump, and military conflict crises have repeatedly surfaced due to the possibility of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and tanker attacks. Even after the inauguration of the Biden administration, progress in improving relations with Iran has been sluggish, and the situation is worsening as Iran's nuclear development accelerates. Against this backdrop, the US scenario of occupying seven islands in the Strait of Hormuz can be interpreted as revealing the US's strategic intentions for reorganizing the Middle East order, beyond a simple military option.
[Current Situation]: 7-Island Occupation Scenario Rapidly Emerging, 7,000 US Troops on Standby
As of March 31, 2026, local time, multiple sources indicate that the US is seriously considering the possibility of deploying ground forces to seven islands, strategic locations in the Strait of Hormuz. This, coupled with a series of hawkish measures, including former President Trump's warning to destroy Kharg Island and Iran's consideration of a military operation to seize highly enriched uranium, is raising military tensions in the Middle East to their highest level. Specifically, the US is considering a scenario to occupy seven islands located in the Strait of Hormuz, including Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, and Sirri Islands. These islands are strategic locations that can control navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and if Iran were to block the strait, it could have a devastating impact on the global economy. Currently, approximately 7,000 US ground troops are on standby and are prepared to be deployed quickly if necessary. The US State Department is preparing for the possibility of failed negotiations with Iran and even hinting at reconsidering NATO participation, amplifying international anxiety. In particular, Iran is reportedly significantly increasing its production of highly enriched uranium and accelerating its development of nuclear weapons, further increasing the possibility of US military intervention. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps regularly conducts military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, sending warning messages about US military movements.
[Multi-faceted Analysis]: Ripple Effects on Markets, Society, and Politics
US military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to cause a sharp rise in international oil prices in the short term. If the scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz becomes a reality, disruptions in oil transport could occur, exacerbating supply shortages. This would immediately lead to higher energy prices, further fueling global inflation. In particular, countries with high energy import dependence, such as South Korea, would inevitably suffer economic damage. In addition, increased military tension could deepen political instability in the Middle East and increase the threat of terrorism. Various scenarios are anticipated, including the possibility of Iranian retaliatory attacks and increased terrorist activity by pro-Iranian forces, which could cause international security concerns. Furthermore, US military intervention could lead to divisions in the international community. China and Russia are likely to oppose unilateral US military action and support Iran. This could deepen the conflict between the US, China, and Russia, and form a new Cold War structure. Experts warn that US military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz could amplify geopolitical risks in the Middle East and have a serious impact on the global economy. In particular, concerns are being raised that unpredictable situations could arise if the balance between Iran's nuclear development capabilities and the US's military response is broken.
[Future Prospects]: Will it be a 'Game Changer' or Open 'Pandora's Box'?
US military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz could be a 'game changer' in the Middle East situation or an opportunity to open 'Pandora's Box'. If the US can quickly and accurately occupy the seven islands and deter further provocations from Iran, it could bring stability to the Middle East. However, if strong opposition from Iran, international criticism, and unexpected military clashes occur, the situation could worsen uncontrollably. The following points should be noted in the future:
1. Whether and when the US military operation will be executed: The Middle East situation could change rapidly depending on the US's final decision.
2. Iran's response: If Iran commits military provocations, there is a possibility of escalation into a full-scale war.
3. International community's reaction: Divisions in the international community could deepen depending on the positions of major countries such as China and Russia.
4. Volatility in oil prices and financial markets: Increased military tension could increase volatility in financial markets, such as soaring oil prices and plummeting stock prices.
In conclusion, US military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz is a very risky and uncertain choice. If successful, it could bring stability to the Middle East, but if it fails, it could lead to unpredictable disasters. The international community should closely monitor the US's decision and prepare for the worst-case scenario.
